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Author Topic: Wisdom of Crowds Experiment!  (Read 2301 times)

Offline Fajja

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Wisdom of Crowds Experiment!
« on: September 14, 2009, 12:22:37 PM »
I think a fair few people ahve heard about derren brown prediciting the lottery, how he did it is still a bit of a mystery...but in his program he covered some very interesting mathematical subjects. One of which is Wisdom of Crowds. It came about early in the 20th centuary at a county fair, where people had to guess the weight of an ox...no one got it right, but if you took the average of all of the guesses, the weight was bang on! Now derren brown showed how he had 24 basically guess the lottery, but I'm going to try something a little different.

How about using Wisdom of Crowds to predict the football results?

I plan to do this on Saturday for the English premiership and the SPL

Just copy and paste the fixtures below, and write Home or Away Win, or Draw
Arsenal v Wigan
Aston Villa v Portsmouth
Bolton v Stoke
Burnley v Sunderland
Hull v Birmingham
West Ham v Liverpool
Chelsea v Tottenham
Everton v Blackburn
Man Utd v Man City
Wolverhampton v Fulham

Aberdeen v St Mirren
Dundee Utd v Motherwell
Hamilton v Falkirk
Hibernian v St Johnstone
Kilmarnock v Rangers
Celtic v Hearts
« Last Edit: September 14, 2009, 12:24:08 PM by Fajja »
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Offline Knix

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Re: Wisdom of Crowds Experiment!
« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2009, 12:46:34 PM »
Arsenal v Wigan - Home Win
Aston Villa v Portsmouth - Home Win
Bolton v Stoke - Draw
Burnley v Sunderland - Away Win
Hull v Birmingham - Home Win
West Ham v Liverpool - Away Win
Chelsea v Tottenham - Home Win/Draw ;D
Everton v Blackburn - Draw
Man Utd v Man City - Home Win (Go United!)
Wolverhampton v Fulham - Away Win

Aberdeen v St Mirren (Home Win)
Dundee Utd v Motherwell  ???
Hamilton v Falkirk  ???
Hibernian v St Johnstone  ???
Kilmarnock v Rangers (Away Win)
Celtic v Hearts (Home Win)
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Offline Fajja

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Re: Wisdom of Crowds Experiment!
« Reply #2 on: September 14, 2009, 12:50:29 PM »
better put mine....

Arsenal v Wigan - Home Win
Aston Villa v Portsmouth - Draw
Bolton v Stoke - Home Win
Burnley v Sunderland - Draw
Hull v Birmingham - Draw
West Ham v Liverpool - Away Win
Chelsea v Tottenham - Home Win
Everton v Blackburn - Home Win
Man Utd v Man City - Draw
Wolverhampton v Fulham -  Away Win

Aberdeen v St Mirren -  Home Win
Dundee Utd v Motherwell - Home Win
Hamilton v Falkirk - Draw
Hibernian v St Johnstone -  Draw
Kilmarnock v Rangers - Away Win
Celtic v Hearts - Home Win
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Offline guinnes137

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Re: Wisdom of Crowds Experiment!
« Reply #3 on: September 14, 2009, 03:52:23 PM »
Arsenal v Wigan - home win
Aston Villa v Portsmouth - draw
Bolton v Stoke - draw
Burnley v Sunderland - draw
Hull v Birmingham - home win
West Ham v Liverpool - away win
Chelsea v Tottenham - away win
Everton v Blackburn - home win
Man Utd v Man City - home win
Wolverhampton v Fulham -  draw
Aberdeen v St Mirren - away win
Dundee Utd v Motherwell - draw
Hamilton v Falkirk - draw
Hibernian v St Johnstone - away win
Kilmarnock v Rangers - away  win
Celtic v Hearts - home win
« Last Edit: September 14, 2009, 03:57:37 PM by guinnes137 »
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Innes :)

Offline croupier

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Re: Wisdom of Crowds Experiment!
« Reply #4 on: September 14, 2009, 10:42:34 PM »
Arsenal v Wigan                 Home (3-0)
Aston Villa v Portsmouth     Draw (1-1)
Bolton v Stoke                   Away (0-1)
Burnley v Sunderland         Draw (0-0)
Hull v Birmingham             Home (2-1)
West Ham v Liverpool        Away (1-3)
Chelsea v Tottenham         Home (1-0)
Everton v Blackburn          Home (1-0)
Man Utd v Man City           Home (3-1)
Wolverhampton v Fulham   Draw (0-0)

Aberdeen v St Mirren         Home (2-0)
Dundee Utd v Motherwell    Home (2-0)
Hamilton v Falkirk             Home (2-0)
Hibernian v St Johnstone   Draw (0-0)
Kilmarnock v Rangers       Away (1-2)
Celtic v Hearts                  Draw (1-1)
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Offline Fajja

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Re: Wisdom of Crowds Experiment!
« Reply #5 on: September 15, 2009, 03:48:07 PM »
Just keeping everything in order....these were from the SGL
Arsenal v Wigan - HOME WIN
Aston Villa v Portsmouth - HOME WIN
Bolton v Stoke - HOME WIN
Burnley v Sunderland - HOME WIN
Hull v Birmingham - AWAY WIN
West Ham v Liverpool - AWAY WIN
Chelsea v Tottenham - HOME WIN
Everton v Blackburn - HOME WIN
Man Utd v Man City - HOME WIN
Wolverhampton v Fulham - AWAY WIN

Aberdeen v St Mirren - HOME WIN
Dundee Utd v Motherwell - DRAW
Hamilton v Falkirk - AWAY WIN
Hibernian v St Johnstone - HOME WIN
Kilmarnock v Rangers - AWAY WIN
Celtic v Hearts - AWAY WIN

rsenal v Wigan - Home win
Aston Villa v Portsmouth - Home win
Bolton v Stoke - Draw
Burnley v Sunderland - Draw
Hull v Birmingham - Draw
West Ham v Liverpool - Away win
Chelsea v Tottenham - Home win
Everton v Blackburn - Draw
Man Utd v Man City - Home win
Wolverhampton v Fulham - Away win


Kilmarnock v Rangers - Away win
Celtic v Hearts - Home win

Arsenal v Wigan - Home
Aston Villa v Portsmouth - Home
Bolton v Stoke - Away
Burnley v Sunderland - Draw
Hull v Birmingham - Home
West Ham v Liverpool - Away
Chelsea v Tottenham - Draw
Everton v Blackburn - Draw
Man Utd v Man City - Home
Wolverhampton v Fulham - Away

Aberdeen v St Mirren - Home
Dundee Utd v Motherwell - Home
Hamilton v Falkirk - Draw
Hibernian v St Johnstone - Draw
Kilmarnock v Rangers - Away
Celtic v Hearts - Home

Arsenal v Wigan - HOME WIN
Aston Villa v Portsmouth - HOME WIN
Bolton v Stoke - DRAW
Burnley v Sunderland - AWAY WIN
Hull v Birmingham - DRAW
West Ham v Liverpool - AWAY WIN
Chelsea v Tottenham - HOME WIN
Everton v Blackburn - HOME WIN
Man Utd v Man City - HOME WIN
Wolverhampton v Fulham - AWAY WIN

Aberdeen v St Mirren - HOME WIN
Dundee Utd v Motherwell - HOME WIN
Hamilton v Falkirk - DRAW
Hibernian v St Johnstone - HOME WIN
Kilmarnock v Rangers - AWAY WIN
Celtic v Hearts - HOME WIN

Arsenal v Wigan Home Win
Aston Villa v Portsmouth Away win
Bolton v Stoke Home win
Burnley v Sunderland Away win
Hull v Birmingham Away win
West Ham v Liverpool Away win
Chelsea v Tottenham Away win
Everton v Blackburn Draw
Man Utd v Man City Draw
Wolverhampton v Fulham away win



Aberdeen v St Mirren Away win
Dundee Utd v Motherwell Home win
Hamilton v Falkirk Home win
Hibernian v St Johnstone Draw
Kilmarnock v Rangers Away win
Celtic v Hearts Home win

Arsenal v Wigan HOME WIN
Aston Villa v Portsmouth HOME WIN
Bolton v Stoke AWAY WIN
Burnley v Sunderland HOME WIN
Hull v Birmingham HOME WI N
West Ham v Liverpool AWAY WIN
Chelsea v Tottenham HOME WIN
Everton v Blackburn HOME WIN
Man Utd v Man City HOME WNI
Wolverhampton v Fulham AWAY WIN

Aberdeen v St Mirren HOME WIN
Dundee Utd v Motherwell AWAY WIN
Hamilton v Falkirk AWAY WIN
Hibernian v St Johnstone HOME WIN
Kilmarnock v Rangers AWAY WIN
Celtic v Hearts AWAY WIN

Arsenal v Wigan HOME WIN
Aston Villa v Portsmouth HOME WIN
Bolton v Stoke AWAY WIN
Burnley v Sunderland AWAY WIN
Hull v Birmingham HOME WIN
West Ham v Liverpool AWAY WIN
Chelsea v Tottenham AWAY WIN
Everton v Blackburn DRAW
Man Utd v Man City DRAW
Wolverhampton v Fulham HOME WIN

Aberdeen v St Mirren HOME WIN
Dundee Utd v Motherwell AWAY WIN
Hamilton v Falkirk AWAY WIN
Hibernian v St Johnstone HOME WIN
Kilmarnock v Rangers AWAY WIN
Celtic v Hearts AWAY WIN

Arsenal v Wigan HOME WIN
Aston Villa v Portsmouth HOME WIN
Bolton v Stoke AWAY WIN
Burnley v Sunderland DRAW
Hull v Birmingham AWAY WIN
West Ham v Liverpool DRAW
Chelsea v Tottenham HOME WIN
Everton v Blackburn AWAY WIN
Man Utd v Man City HOME WIN (4:1)
Wolverhampton v Fulham DRAW

Aberdeen v St Mirren HOME WIN
Dundee Utd v Motherwell HOME WIN
Hamilton v Falkirk DRAW
Hibernian v St Johnstone HOME WIN
Kilmarnock v Rangers AWAY WIN
Celtic v Hearts HOME WIN

Arsenal v Wigan HOME
Aston Villa v Portsmouth HOME
Bolton v Stoke DRAW
Burnley v Sunderland AWAY
Hull v Birmingham DRAW
West Ham v Liverpool DRAW
Chelsea v Tottenham DRAW
Everton v Blackburn HOME
Man Utd v Man City HOME
Wolverhampton v Fulham DRAW

Aberdeen v St Mirren HOME
Dundee Utd v Motherwell HOME
Hamilton v Falkirk AWAY
Hibernian v St Johnstone HOME
Kilmarnock v Rangers AWAY
Celtic v Hearts HOME

/ Pipsqueak

Arsenal v Wigan HOME WIN
Aston Villa v Portsmouth HOME WIN
Bolton v Stoke AWAY WIN
Burnley v Sunderland AWAY WIN
Hull v Birmingham DRAW
West Ham v Liverpool AWAY WIN
Chelsea v Tottenham HOME WIN
Everton v Blackburn DRAW
Man Utd v Man City DRAW
Wolverhampton v Fulham AWAY WIN

Aberdeen v St Mirren HOME WIN
Dundee Utd v Motherwell AWAY WIN
Hamilton v Falkirk DRAW
Hibernian v St Johnstone HOME WIN
Kilmarnock v Rangers AWAY WIN
Celtic v Hearts HOME WIN

Arsenal v Wigan HOME
Aston Villa v Portsmouth AWAY
Bolton v Stoke AWAY
Burnley v Sunderland HOME
Hull v Birmingham AWAY
West Ham v Liverpool AWAY
Chelsea v Tottenham HOME
Everton v Blackburn HOME
Man Utd v Man City AWAY
Wolverhampton v Fulham AWAY

Aberdeen v St Mirren HOME
Dundee Utd v Motherwell HOME
Hamilton v Falkirk AWAY
Hibernian v St Johnstone HOME
Kilmarnock v Rangers AWAY
Celtic v Hearts HOME

/tealsteam
« Last Edit: September 15, 2009, 04:27:55 PM by Fajja »
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Offline Fajja

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Re: Wisdom of Crowds Experiment!
« Reply #6 on: September 15, 2009, 05:05:58 PM »
Arsenal v Wigan HOME
Aston Villa v Portsmouth HOME
Bolton v Stoke DRAW
Burnley v Sunderland DRAW
Hull v Birmingham HOME
West Ham v Liverpool AWAY
Chelsea v Tottenham DRAW
Everton v Blackburn DRAW
Man Utd v Man City HOME
Wolverhampton v Fulham AWAY

Aberdeen v St Mirren HOME
Dundee Utd v Motherwell DRAW
Hamilton v Falkirk DRAW
Hibernian v St Johnstone HOME
Kilmarnock v Rangers AWAY
Celtic v Hearts HOME

/evilscotsman
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Offline Fajja

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Re: Wisdom of Crowds Experiment!
« Reply #7 on: September 17, 2009, 01:41:44 PM »


Taa daa :)

red ones are too close to call according to people predictions.
HW=home win
D=Draw
AW=Away Win

Columns X and Y show the results obtained by using two different processes.

Disclaimer: This is just for fun, so don't blame me if they are totally wrong!
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Offline croupier

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Re: Wisdom of Crowds Experiment!
« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2009, 12:08:44 PM »
Do another one but get people to predict the score. Also next to each fixture have a link that takes you to the stats of the match explaining who is not playing etc to give the person predicting an educated guess. and leave out the scottish ones not many people know enough about them
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